Covid
mitigation policies:
Rotation as Contagion
Mitigation, with Jeff Ely and Andrea Galeotti,
accepted to Management Science (ideas
from this paper have been incorporated into the DELVE
report of the Royal Society)
To prevent the spread of a disease an organization
obeys social distancing restrictions and thus limits the number of its members
physically present on a given day. We
study rotation schemes in which mutually exclusive groups are active on
different days. The frequency of rotation affects risk over the duration of
diffusion prior to the time the organization is able to react to the infection.
If this reaction time is speedy, then such risk is undesirable since prevalence
is initially convex in time. Then, frequent rotation acts as insurance against
exposure-time risk and is optimal. Infrequent rotation becomes optimal if the
organization reacts slowly. Cross-mixing of the rotating subpopulations is
detrimental because it increases contacts between sick and healthy individuals.
However, the effect of mixing is small if the terminal prevalence is low in the
absence of mixing.
Optimal Test Allocation,
with Jeff Ely, Andrea Galeotti
and Ole Jann, accepted
to the Journal of Economic Theory
A health authority chooses a binary action for each of
several individuals that differ in their pretest probabilities
of being infectious and in the additive losses associated with two types of
decision errors. The authority is endowed with a portfolio of tests that differ
in their sensitivities and specificities. We derive a simple necessary
condition for optimality of test allocation. In special cases, precision
parameters of the allocated test are monotone in the individuals' types. We
characterize the marginal benefit of a test, provide an algorithmic solution
for the test-allocation problem and consider the benefits of confirmatory
testing.
Merit of Test:
Perspective of Information Economics, with Andrea Galeotti
and Paolo Surico, 2020,
Health Policy and Technology 9.4, 575--577.
This note describes standard economic methodology that
ranks available diagnostic medical tests as a function of their sensitivities,
specificities, the losses of both types of the decision error, and of the
pre-test probability of infection. The purpose of the note is interdisciplinary
communication.
Presentation of
research with J. Ely and A. Galeotti at U Cambridge,
UK
Policy briefs:
On
Mass Testing and Incentives, with Tim Besley, Andrea Galeotti
and Paolo Surico
The Value of Testing, VoxEu policy brief with Andrea Galeotti
and Paolo Surico
Using
Bluetooth technology for COVID-19 contact tracing, with Ole Jann and Pavel Kocourek, Czech
version
International
testing policies for COVID-19 - An overview and an economic-statistical
perspective, with Ole Jann, Pavel Kocourek, Jan Kulveit,
Ludmila Matyskova, and Vladimir Novak, Czech
version
On
the Private vs Social Benefits of Covid Testing
(in Czech), with Jan Kulveit
Introduction
to epidemiological modelling (Czech translation and adaptation of a text of
Kevin Bryan
Media
outputs (in Czech):
Interview
on Respekt on slow intensity of tracing
Comment
on Aktualne.cz on slow intensity of tracing with Ole Jann and Vasily
Korovkin
Comment
on Aktualne.cz calling for a national testing strategy with Ole Jann
Comment
on Aktualne.cz on the error rates of antibody testing with Ole Jann and Jakub Kastl
Comment
on Aktualne.cz on importance of
intense tracing
Interview
in Lidove Noviny on civil
supervision of contact tracing
Appearance
on the Czech state radio on importance of smart-phone tracing app
Appearance
on the Czech state radio on Czech prevalence study