Recent Journal Articles

 

A Human Capital Explanation of Real Business Cycles  

with Szilard Benk, Tamas Csabafi, Jing Dang, and Max Gillman published in Journal of Human Capital

The article offers an alternative explanation of business cycles by incorporating human capital investment as a second sector integrated with accounting methods. Inputs such as education expenditure and tertiary student time in this sector enable the explanation of a broad set of business cycle moments. Unlike one-sector models, which struggle with this challenge, the labor time share, labor productivity, and consumption are jointly well-explained. Since the goods sector is less human capital-intensive, human capital deepening occurs during contractions, whereas expansions are characterized by physical capital deepening in the goods sector. The external margin of human capital investment helps clarify conflicting estimates of labor elasticity. Finally, the policy implications of addressing these RBC puzzles are discussed.

https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SUERF-Policy-Brief-815_Benk-et-al.pdf

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/728088?journalCode=jhc

 

Optimal Government Policies in Models with Heterogenous Agents

with Radim Bohacek published in Journal of Economic Theory

In this paper we develop a new approach for finding optimal government policies in economies with heterogeneous agents. Using the calculus of variations, we present three classes of equilibrium conditions from government's and individual agent's optimization problems: 1) the first order conditions: the government's Lagrange–Euler equation and the individual agent's Euler equation; 2) the stationarity condition on the distribution function; and, 3) the aggregate market clearing conditions. These conditions form a system of functional equations which we solve numerically. The solution takes into account simultaneously the effect of the government policy on individual allocations, the resulting optimal distribution of agents in the steady state and, therefore, equilibrium prices. We illustrate the methodology on a Ramsey problem with heterogeneous agents, finding the optimal limiting tax on total income.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022053118301844

 

Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications for Consumption and Asset Prices

with Max Gillman and Michal Pakoš published in Review of Finance

Rietz (1988) and Barro (2006) subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth rate. We extend their framework and subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth persistence. We model growth persistence by means of two hidden types of economic slowdowns: recessions and lost decades. We estimate the model based on the postwar US data using maximum likelihood and find that it can simultaneously match a wide array of dynamic pricing phenomena in the equity and bond markets. The key intuition for our results stems from the inability to discriminate between the short and the long recessions ex ante.

https://academic.oup.com/rof/article/19/3/1053/1594867