Table 3.
Likelihood Ratio Tests of Significant Relationship between Real Variables and Market Indeces. Starting period.
(chi-square statistics, with optimal number of lags in parentheses)
Period

93:1 to 96:12

Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Contem-poraneous Lags Only
Contem-poraneous
Lags Only
M1 1.40(1) 0.01(1) 0.01(1) 0.20(1)
M2 0.13(1) 0.01(1) 0.95(1) 1.13(1)
Exports 0.01(1) 2.78(2) 2.61(1) 0.44(1)
Imports 0.60(1) 1.31(1) 5.02(1)** 10.05(2)***
Trade Balance 1.40(1) 4.1(2) 0.01(1) 21.57(5)***
For. Cap.Inflow 0.54(1) 12.5(4)** 2.54(1) 4.30(2)
Budget Deficit 4.33(1)** 8.00(4)* 0.09(1) 0.01(1)
Gov. Debt 4.34(1)** 6.60(3)* 0.03(1) 0.53(1)
Price Level (CPI) 0.42(1) 0.10(1) 3.42(1)* 5.82(1)**
Price Level (PPI) 0.50(1) 5.27(2) 4.41(1)** 7(1)***
Exch.Rate (US$) 4.45(1)** 16.01(2)*** 9.16(1)*** 14.64(4)***
Ind. Production 1.48(1) 17.40(5)*** 1.93(1) 20.42(5)***
Period

93:1 to 96:12

Hungary
Poland
Contem-poraneous Lags Only
Contem-poraneous
Lags Only
M1 1.43(1) 76.05(5)*** 0.07(1) 92.74(5)***
M2 5.44(1)** 71.40(5)*** 1.04(1) 91.28(5)***
Exports 1.03(1) 63.07(5)*** 0.01(1) 87.01(5)***
Imports 0.16(1) 62.18(5)*** 0.08(1) 86.41(5)***
Trade Balance 2.15(1) 62.72(5)*** 0.12(1) 88.29(5)***
For. Cap.Inflow 12.75(1)*** 79.64(5)*** 16.37(1)*** 107.31(5)***
Budget Deficit 0.29(1) 62.36(5)*** 2.42(1) 89.74(5)***
Gov. Debt 0.12(1) 76.61(5)*** 19.42(1)*** 108.44(5)***
Price Level (CPI) 5.86(1)** 68.73(5)*** 1.84(1) 97.47(5)***
Price Level (PPI) 7.44(1)*** 68.62(5)*** 1.18(1) 91.08(5)***
Exch.Rate (US$) 7.02(1)*** 54.20(5)*** 1.68(1) 76.35(5)***
Ind. Production 2.02(1) 67.86(5)*** 0.45(1) 86.50(5)***